After driving for a long six months, we've finally arrived...it's time for playoff baseball.
So let's start off with a word association game - what do David Ortiz, Mike Scioscia, Albert Pujols, and Joe Torre all have in common? The fact that they will all be watching playoff baseball this October, not playing it. Over the course of the last decade, we've become accustomed to Ortiz, Scioscia, Pujols, and Torre all playing frequent roles in the drama that is the MLB postseason. This year, those guys are being replaced by names like Joey Votto, Tim Lincecum, C.J. Wilson, and Aroldis Chapman.
With postseason play beginning this afternoon, and a ton of new faces on the postseason scene, everyone is trying to anticipate how this year's playoffs will play out. The usual arguments will be made - one's about the importance of pitching, the intangibles of momentum, and the pricelessness of previous experience - but how can we narrow down which two teams will be left standing, come the last week of October? Well there is really no way to be sure of who will outlast the competition, but what we can be sure of is that October baseball always promises us some extraordinary drama. It's fitting that on the eve of the playoffs, ESPN aired their movie "Four Days In October" - recapping the unprecedented and embarrassing collapse of the 2004 New York Yankees, and the defiant curse-breaking effort of the Boston Red Sox. The film reminds us that no matter what we think on day 1 of the playoffs, anything is truly possible...
And without further adieu, here is the 2010 MLB Playoff breakdown:
ALDS, Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays: Rangers in 4
The Rays could be the first of many upsets this offseason. Although the Rays are considered the main heavyweight in the AL, having clinched the best overall record and home-field advantage, the Rangers are no bunch of slums. Sure, people will point out that Rangers' ace, Cliff Lee is 0-3 against the Rays this season, including an 0-2 record at The Trop, where he will pitch this afternoon - but if I've learned anything about predicting playoff baseball, it's that preexisting stats really don't matter. That being said, I totally expect Cliff Lee to pick up where he left off last postseason...baffling hitters left and right. All the Rangers really need to do is steal one game in St. Petersburg, where all 36 Rays fans, Dick Vitale included, don't really add much as an intimidating "10th man." In fact, I think the obnoxious catwalks at Tropicana Field present more of a home-field advantage than the Rays' fans do. If the Rangers can get back to Arlington with a win, I am confident that they will take both games at their home ballpark, which will be stoked to host their first playoff game since 1999. After all, the Rangers have something to prove and are glad not to be playing the Yankees - since the Wild Card era (1995), Texas has been to the playoffs three times ('96, '98, '99) and has won only one game...losing all three ALDS appearances to the Yanks.
ALDS, New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins: Twins in 4
As is the same story every year since the beginning of time, Yankees fans will irrationally argue with anyone as to why they are destined to win the World Series. Well, the Twins won't easily forget last year, where they worked so hard to claim a postseason birth, only to have the Yanks sweep them out. Francisco Liriano may not be on the same level of 'acehood' as C.C. Sabathia, but the Twins' pitching staff is more complete than the Yanks' at this point. Believe it or not, New Yorkers, there will come a time that Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera won't be able to pitch as well as they did in the 90's, and this is the year that the Yankees' "core 4" start to show their age. With redemption on their mind and a brand new ball field, full of fans who are amped up to host Games 1 & 2 in sub-50 degree temperatures, the Twins might not even need to take a game in the Bronx to secure their first ticket to the ALCS since 2002.
NLDS, Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies: Reds in 4
It has baffled my mind since 2007, but I have to give the Phillies credit, because they have somehow been able to play up to their constantly over-hyped reputation. Ok sure, they have a great-looking big 3 for their rotation, and while pitching is critical in the playoffs, you still need to score runs! The Reds offense has been explosive this season, and they will continue to be, here in October. One thing that I have noticed about the Phillies is that they really only play as well as they think of their reputation - when public opinion doubts the Phillies, they doubt themselves, and then we see the real Phillies. I think that if the Reds can make a suspected god bleed in Game 1 or 2, the Phillies will start to shake in their boots, and will implode, to the Reds delight. The Reds pitching is not as good as the Phillies pitching, but it's not bad. Also, I think that Aroldis Chapman, and his 105-mph fastball will have a large roll to play in the late innings. I would love to see a Phillies-Giants matchup so that the G-men can prove they have a better rotation, but I just honestly don't see the Phillies living up to expectations here. Oh yea, look for Halladay to have some postseason debut jitters, and I think the Reds jump behind Edison Volquez to steal Game 1 today.
NLDS, Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants: Giants in 3
I don't think that anybody wants to see Bobby Cox go out like this, and I would have picked the Bravos to beat the Reds or Phillies, but the Braves drew the short straw and have to play the Giants in round 1. It's no secret that the Braves ran out of steam towards the end of the season, and as much as they want to "win one for the gipper," the Giants' rotation is just too good. I said at the end of last season that the Giants were the best team to not make the playoffs last year, and that if the Giants had made the playoffs last season, they probably would have won the World Series with the rotation that they have. Well this is step 1 for the Giants to show the world that - when you have a staff of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and added bullpen help from Madison Bumgarner and seasoned veteran, Barry Zito - there is no way you will lose two games in a row...ever. Powerful sweep here for the G-men.
ALCS, Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins: Twins in 7
In one of the least-watched ALCS matchups in recent memory, the dynamic duo of Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson will force the Twins to a Game 7, but the Twinkies' home-field advantage and team mindset will prevail, landing them in the Fall Classic for the first time since 1991. The Rangers will walk away with their heads high though, having played for their first pennant since 1945, when the franchise was still the Washington Senators.
NLCS, Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants: Giants in 5
This is the series where people will finally wake up and say, "wow, the Giants pitching is really good." Despite the fact that there offense is often criticized, the Giants have the perfect type of role-playing offense that compliments a dominant pitching staff in the playoffs. Congrats to the Reds for making it this far, but this won't be much of a series.
World Series, Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants: Giants in 6
If the Yankees had the pitching rotation that the Giants had, we would be re-naming the Cy Young award after them. But because they do their own thing, quietly, over in the city by the bay, nobody has taken the time to notice them. Not only to the Giants boast three Cy Young awards on their staff (Lincecum '08, '09 & Zito '02), but they also made key offensive pickups throughout the season. Buster Posey should win rookie-of-the-year, as long as the Jayson Heyward hype doesn't overshadow Posey's better numbers - Pablo Sandoval should return to his heroic, clutch performances of last season - and Brian Wilson can close the door on the 9th inning with the best of them. Ladies and gentlemen, I don't know why you couldn't see it coming sooner, or why Vegas gave them 20:1 preseason odds, but I present to you your 2010 World Champions, the San Francisco Giants.
Enjoy the games today, we'll see ya in 2011.
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