Preseason Predictions

These predictions are retroactive to April 1st when they were published in CNU's Captain's Log. This is simply the full version of the article.

Typically heading into the season I will avoid making set predictions and instead opt to rank the 30 teams of Major League Baseball from best to worst. This year however, in my final season writing, I decided to man up and put some solid predictions out there.

AL East.

1. Red Sox 2. Yankees* 3. Rays 4. Orioles 5. Blue Jays

Sticking to last weeks column, I simply think that the Red Sox out-moved the Yankees this off-season. The Yankees focused on names and excitement while the Red Sox focused on filling gaps and role-players. The Yankees will however grab the wildcard; even though I think the Twins will be close, I gave it to the Yanks because I can’t imagine the first year of the new stadium without a playoff game. The Rays will be in the race, but they will come back down to Earth a little bit after last season’s miraculous run. I can’t say I’m too sure why they sent David Price down to the minors though. The Orioles will avoid the cellar this year as in the last three years the Blue Jays have gone from a having a shot at the division title to being back at the drawing board.

AL Central.

1. Indians 2. Twins 3.Tigers 4.Royals 5.White Sox

I think that everyone likes to focus on “last year” too much, and not what is lining up for this year. Who cares that the Indians totally choked last year; if anything it means that they are that much less likely to do it two years in a row. The Tribe should be back at peak form this year with Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona leading the rotation; while Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez are back to full health and will pace the offense. The Twins had four starters win at least 11 games last year, and will continue to be a well-rounded competitor that flip-flops atop the division with the Indians throughout the summer. Expect the Tigers to bounce back in a Cleveland-like way as they were World Series favorites last year. I think their starting rotation will find some 2006 magic and have a competitive season. The Royals are finally rounding out to a contending team, and adding Mike Jacobs’ power and Coco Crisp’s speed to the lineup should help put more runs on the board. The White Sox are getting a little too old and won’t be terrible, but will just be the odd team out in what will be one of baseball’s most balanced division – perhaps with everyone finishing above .500.

AL West.

1. Angels 2. Athletics 3. Rangers 4.Mariners

The Angels won’t walk away with this division as the A’s are at a breaking point for their young talent to flex its ability. However, though Oakland may spend a little bit of time in first, LA is rock solid from its lineup, through the rotation, and to the back of the bullpen – resulting in another AL West title. The Rangers have the same old story of a lineup that is actually getting better – particularly with Nelson Cruz playing for a full season – but a rotation that needs more talent. Finally, the Mariners definitely are much improved from their 100-loss year in 2008, but still will be bringing up the rear.

NL East.

1. Phillies 2. Marlins* 3. Mets 4. Braves 5.Nationals

The Phillies will likely come down to the wire with the Fish, but will use their experience to take the division crown. The Marlins however will land the wildcard as they, like the A’s, are on the horizon of their young talent being in full bloom. Also strangely enough, they won it all in ’97 and six season later won it all in ’03 – and here we are six seasons later, it may be time for another Miami miracle. The Mets did solidify their bullpen beyond any other team in baseball, however their rotation has more holes than a golf course. The Braves will be a close fourth and will build their talent for what should be a run at the division in 2010. Schafer and Anderson will be fun to watch in CF, taking over for Andru. And then there’s the Nats who will be better than most people think. Milledge and Zimmerman will be fun to watch, while Daniel Cabrera has the right stuff to dominate the NL, the way many other AL pitchers have in the past.

NL Central.

1. Cubs 2. Reds 3.Cardinals 4.Brewers 5.Astros 6. Pirates

It will be tough for the Cubbies to get motivated. After all, they did everything right in the regular season last year, so their only motivation this season is not necessarily to play better, but just to get back to the playoffs so they can have another shot. Most surprising of all my picks is probably having the Reds come in 2^nd. However the additions of Taveras and Hernandez make their lineup threatening from top to bottom’ while Arthur Rhodes solidifies an above average bullpen that will close out games for a lineup full of young talent. The Brewers, like the Rays will come back from cloud-9 and play at a lower lever, especially without C.C. – it will be tough for each pitcher to throw at a higher spot in the rotation. This is a building year for the ‘Stros as the Tejada issue already puts a damper on their season, but they will beat out the Pirates, who are searching for answers on how to get out of the cellar.

NL West.

1. Dodgers 2. Giants 3. D-Backs 4.Rockies 5.Padres

The Dodgers will claim this division behind the leadership of Joe Torre, the consistent threats throughout their lineup, and the comeback season if Jason Schmidt. The Giants will finally show some life after a few years of dullness as Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Randy Johnson will take the pressure off of Barry Zito, enabling him to have a season similar to his days in Oakland. The Diamondbacks will probably be right around their 82-win mark from last year as they can no longer out-pitch everybody else. At the bottom the Rockies and Padres take their turn bringing up the rear of baseball’s weakest division – both of them wondering how just a few years ago, they were at the top.