Sunday, March 22, 2009

How The East Was Won

Well it's about that time again. Spring is on the verge of erasing the cold Winter weather, we've changed our clocks, the World Baseball Classic is in full stride, and Opening Day is just a stones throw away when the Phillies will host the Braves on Sunday night, April 5th to open up the 2009 season.


Serving as the first of a pair of articles I will use to preview the season, this article is going to take a dive into the off-season dealings and season preview of the ever-popular AL East. Please note that while the Tampa Bay Rays will not be mentioned in this article, that in no way shows that I think they are not going to be fighting for the division crown, this article simply focuses on the competing off-season moves of Boston and New York.


So the New York Yankees spent the month of December negotiating and arranging to make the "big splash" of this off-season. In hindsight, I'm sure they're pretty proud of themselves, as they appear to have made multiple "splashes." They signed former Brewers ace C.C. Sabathia (7 years, $161 mil.), Blue Jays fireballer A.J. Burnett (5 years, $82.5 mil.), and the Angels' all-star slugging first baseman Mark Teixeira (8 years, $180 mil.) Unfortunately for the Yanks what took them a month to coordinate was out-done by their rival, the Boston Red Sox in 3 quick days.


While the Yankees moves are quite impressive, they are also very typical. The Yankees did what they always do, they went after the big names in the free agent market that would get their fans pumped up for the 2009 season. The conclusion of the 2008 season freed them of the contracts of Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettite, and Carl Pavano - so the Yanks felt the need to spend all of that money right away, and they were successful in spending a good chunk of it.


In the grand scheme of things though, the Yanks picked up two proven, but risky pitchers; and while Teixeira is no doubt a stud, one man can only do so much for an offense. Let's start with C.C. - he put on a great show for the second half of the 2008 season, stifling batters and literally putting the Milwaukee Brewers on his back and carrying them to the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Yanks, that portion of his performance is nearly irrelevant. The two places that the Yankees need Sabathia to perform are against American League opponents, and in the playoffs. So, that 11-2 record and 1.65 ERA that C.C. had against NL opponents doesn't really apply to the Yanks. However, what does apply to the Bronx Bombers is a little more concerning - in the first half of the season with the Indians (against AL opponents), Sabathia was 6-8 with a 3.83 ERA, his highest mark since 2005. Also Sabathia's sub-.500 record was the first of his career.


Now moving to the other applicable venue - the playoffs. After leading the charge into the postseason for Milwaukee, the new Yankees' ace also led the charge out. In his only postseason appearance, he went 3.2 innings giving up 5 runs on 6 hits, while walking four. More concerningly, for his career in the postseason Sabathia has gone 2-3, and given up 22 runs in 25 innings for an ERA of 7.92. Some investment huh?


Then with Burnett, sure the Yanks picked up an 18-game winner, but with a questionable ERA of 4.07. Also, while Burnett through for 221 innings last year and stayed healthy, he has typically been plagued by the injury bug and has never had back-to-back 200-inning seasons in his 10-year career, so I guess the Yanks are counting on Burnett to break some personal records this year. Another interesting note - the last pitcher who the Yanks spent big bucks on after an 18-win season was none other than Carl Pavano - and we all know how that move worked out.


Now let's head a little more north to Massachusettes where the Boston Red Sox didn't sign any big names or team-carrying playoff pushers. What they did sign was proven talent, all in the course of 3 days. Over the span of January 8, 9, 1nd 10th the Red Sox reached agreements with John Smoltz (SP), Rocco Baldelli (OF), Mark Kotsay (OF), Brad Penny (SP), and Takashi Saito (RP). Talk about making an impact - here is another case of Theo Epstein showing Brian Cashman how to really be a GM.


First of all, the BoSox outfield is already set with Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury, and J.D. Drew. Baldelli and Kotsay, are both 5-tool calibur players who are simply insurance, giving the Sox the best outfield depth in baseball. While Baldelli and Kotsay are both coming off injuries, they passed their team physicals, have a clean bill of health, and will be ready to go on opening day.


Now let's look at the pitching staff. You might say, "Smoltz is old and won't be ready to go till mid-season; and Penny and Saito are both coming off of an injury-ridden 2008" - enough to make teams like the Yankees forget about them and not be interested. However, Smoltz has only had an ERA exceeding 4.00 twice in his 20-year career, will be an excellent veteran and a Schilling-like presence down the stretch for the Red Sox. Meanwhile Brad Penny can throw the ball 98 mph and is on a very short list of pitchers who has beaten the Yankees twice in the same World Series (2003). Last but certainly not least, Saito has been the K-Rod of the NL for the last 2.5 years where he's recorded 81 saves in 91 opportunities, posted an ERA of 1.95 and struck out 245 batters in 190 innings - and the Red Sox didn't even get him to close out games!


So with Saito, Hideki Okajima, and Jonathan Papelbon, Boston has three closer-calibur pitchers at the back end of their bullpen. And that bullpen is preceeded by Penny, Josh Beckett, Dice-K Matsuzaka, John Lester and Tim Wakefield, until Smoltz is healthy. So for the first half of the season the Red Sox will have a #1 starter on the hill 4-out of-5 days, and in the second half of 2009, they will have an ace on the hill everyday...wow, eat your heart out A.J. and C.C., New York may love you now, but the Sox are coming for you and they are coming strong.