Yanks Down, But Not Out

"Don't let us win one."  Those were the famous words spoken by Kevin Millar of the Red Sox before Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, when Boston trailed the Yankees, 3-0.  The Yankees proceeded to lose Game 4...and Game 5...and Game 6...and Game 7.  Even if you are up 3-0 in a series, and 10-0 in Game 4, and you have recorded 26 outs - it. does. not. matter.  The simple fact of sports is that it ain't over till Roseanne sings.

In 2003, the Florida Marlins trailed the Chicago Cubs 3-1 in the NLCS.  They had stolen Game 1 at Wrigley Field, and then proceeded to lose three in-a-row, including Games 3 & 4 at home.  Even if they could win Game 5, they would have to go back to Chicago and beat Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, back-to-back, at Wrigley, a task that had never been achieved by any team...ever.  As a Marlins fan, I remember feeling defeated, especially when talking about it with my high school chemistry teacher, Mr. Hicks...a Yankee fan.  Despite our back-and-forth banter, I received the best perspective from him.  He said, "so you're down 3-1, so what?  Chris, you think the Marlins are the best team, right?  You think that they should be World Champions, right?  Well then if anybody can pull off a comeback from being down 3-1, all the while defeating two pitchers in a row for the first time, it would be the World Champions...don't you think?"  That's when I realized, that if the Marlins were supposed to be World Champions, that they would be the one team who could get out of the deepest hole...and get out of a deep hole, they did.

Fast forward to 2010.  The Yankees stole Game 1.  Then they lost three in-a-row.  Now, even if they win Game 5, they would have to win back-to-back games, in Texas, with one of them against Cliff Lee...someone they can barely hit, let alone defeat.  So what?  If the Yanks are the best, winning three straight games is nothing.  Now sure, they could very well be eliminated from the postseason three hours from now, and I wouldn't be surprised.  But as someone who received a great 'pick-me-up' mindset from a Yankee fan when I thought my boys were down and out...I thought, despite my unhidden hatred for the Bronx Bombers, that I would return the favor.  

I'll be rooting against you C.C., but let's see what you've got...

Play For Today, Not Tomorrow

"I don't care about Game 7, I'm trying to win Game 6." ~ Jack McKeon

I don't have a lot of time here, as the first pitch is in less than 5 minutes, so there isn't going to be a lot of statistical backing and what not - but for what it's worth, I wanted to point this out...

The Texas Rangers have had a great season.  They removed the LA Angels as perennial division champions, have played great baseball, and won the first two games of this year's ALDS on the road in Tampa.  I'd love to see them win, especially because they have the best chance to shut the Yankees up.  That being said, what the heck is manager, Ron Washington, thinking!?

I just checked the starters for today's game and saw that Tommy Hunter is on the bump for the Rangers.  Shouldn't that read, "Cliff Lee," in the paper?  He threw on 3-days-rest all of last postseason, so there's no reason he can't do it this year.  Going back to McKeon's quote, he said that about starting Josh Beckett on 3-days-rest in Game 6 of the 2003 World Series, while leading the Yankess 3-2.  He wasn't going to "take it easy" in Game 6 to set up Beckett for Game 7.  Why?  Because anything can happen in a Game 7.

I have no doubt that Washington would be starting Cliff Lee if he was down 2-1, so why not start him when you are up 2-1 and can put the series away at home?  Don't get me wrong, Tommy Hunter could pitch great today - but if he doesn't, yea you'll have Cliff Lee on the hill in Game 5, but it's still a final game, in the other team's ballpark, so anything can happen...even if Cy Young is pitching.  Not to mention, if you go to Game 5 and win with Cliff Lee, you now lose him for Game 1 of the ALCS against the Yankees.

C'mon Ron, get with the program.  And oh yea, good luck today...please prove me wrong. 

Familiar Territory

"The hero is the great motivator, the magician, the person everyone will count on when things get tough.  They have unshakable character and style.  They do things everyone else wants to do but is afraid to try.  Heroes are symbolic figures whose deeds are out of the ordinary, but not too far out.  They show - often dramatically - that the ideal of success lies within human capacity." ~ Corporate Cultures (Deal & Kennedy, 1982)

The day was Wednesday, October 22, 2003.  The Florida Marlins were trailing the New York Yankees 2-games-to-1 in the World Series, after just having lost their first home game 6-1.  The Fish were in danger of going down 3-1, and having to play 2 of their final 3 games at Yankee Stadium.  Starting pitcher Mark Redman had performed poorly in the postseason, as had Dontrelle Willis; and both Josh Beckett and Brad Penny would not be rested enough to pitch Game 4.  What was Florida skipper, Jack McKeon to do?  Simple, give the ball to Carl Pavano.

Pavano, in October 2003

Pavano, at this point in his career, had been labeled a severe disappointment.  As the stud prospect who was acquired by the Montreal Expos when they traded away Pedro Martinez, Pavano was once expected to become an ace worthy of going toe-to-toe with someone of Pedro's stature.  Pavano had under-performed year in and year out in Montreal, and then was traded to Florida as a giveaway in a deal that brought Cliff Floyd to the Expos in July of the 2002 season.  With 2003 being his first full season, Pavano posted a mediocre 12-13 record with the Marlins, and had an earned run average of 4.30.  So naturally, when it came to the Marlins postseason run, Pavano was not in the plans.

Then something strange happened - Jack McKeon got desperate.  With the Marlins digging for some reliable bullpen help against the Giants in the NLDS, Pavano pitched a total of 2.2 innings in Games 2, 3, and 4 - giving up no runs on only 1 hit.  Then, amidst one of the greatest attempted comebacks in NLCS history, the Marlins turned to Pavano, in Game 6 against Mark Prior and the Chicago Cubs.  McKeon gave Pavano the ball for the first postseason start of his career, as the Fish trailed 3-games-to-2.  Facing elimination, the Marlins would have to defeat Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, back-to-back, at Wrigley Field...something that had never been done...ever.  Pavano took the ball and went to work - going 5.2 innings, giving up 2 runs - not the best outing, but he kept his team within striking distance, and on that night, Steve Bartman took care of the rest.

So back to the 22nd, McKeon gives the ball to Pavano again, this time in an 'unofficial' must-win game against none other than Roger Clemens.  Clemens would be a tough opponent, not just because of his remarkable track record, but because this was likely to be the final start of his career (so we thought, at the time).  How did Pavano respond?  He went 8 innings, threw 115 pitches, surrendered no walks, and gave up only one run.  His performance was the heroic effort the Marlins needed to get back in the series...and after Alex Gonzalez's walk-off homer that night, they would never lose again.

Now what is the point?  Well tonight, here in 2010, the Minnesota Twins need someone to step up.  They need that person who is the great motivator and magician that creates success out of tough times.  So naturally, they are giving the ball to Carl Pavano.  The Twins have lost 10 straight postseason games, they haven't been out of the ALDS since 2002, and they are sick and tired of having the lead role in baseball's version of the movie Groundhog Day, where they just keep getting knocked around by the Yankees.  Ironically enough, they face an 'unofficial' must-win to tie the series - and 2 of the next 3 games will be played in the Bronx.  That puts Pavano in some pretty familiar territory, especially because he'll be opposing yet another Yankee legend...Andy Pettitte.

We keep hearing the critics mention how if the Twins want to beat the Yanks this time around, they need to do something different, they need to play the Yanks in a way they never have before - simply put, they need to stop being intimidated.  So in the moment that they need a leader, at the time that they face the daunting possibility of heading to the Bronx down 2-0, when they feel like it's just the same old story - they'll lean on a guy who has once again fallen off the map and fallen short of expectations...expectations that he created in October of 2003.  This time it's a shot at redemption for both the Twins and the man on the mound.  The Twins look to get back in this series, and Pavano looks to get back on the big stage.  Tonight Carl Pavano takes the hill at Target Field, and the Twins need him to be something more than just an average pitcher...they need him to be a hero.

Go get 'em, Carl.

And So It Begins...

After driving for a long six months, we've finally arrived...it's time for playoff baseball.

So let's start off with a word association game - what do David Ortiz, Mike Scioscia, Albert Pujols, and Joe Torre all have in common?  The fact that they will all be watching playoff baseball this October, not playing it.  Over the course of the last decade, we've become accustomed to Ortiz, Scioscia, Pujols, and Torre all playing frequent roles in the drama that is the MLB postseason.  This year, those guys are being replaced by names like Joey Votto, Tim Lincecum, C.J. Wilson, and Aroldis Chapman.

With postseason play beginning this afternoon, and a ton of new faces on the postseason scene, everyone is trying to anticipate how this year's playoffs will play out.  The usual arguments will be made - one's about the importance of pitching, the intangibles of momentum, and the pricelessness of previous experience - but how can we narrow down which two teams will be left standing, come the last week of October?  Well there is really no way to be sure of who will outlast the competition, but what we can be sure of is that October baseball always promises us some extraordinary drama.  It's fitting that on the eve of the playoffs, ESPN aired their movie "Four Days In October" - recapping the unprecedented and embarrassing collapse of the 2004 New York Yankees, and the defiant curse-breaking effort of the Boston Red Sox.  The film reminds us that no matter what we think on day 1 of the playoffs, anything is truly possible...

And without further adieu, here is the 2010 MLB Playoff breakdown:

ALDS, Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays: Rangers in 4

The Rays could be the first of many upsets this offseason.  Although the Rays are considered the main heavyweight in the AL, having clinched the best overall record and home-field advantage, the Rangers are no bunch of slums.  Sure, people will point out that Rangers' ace, Cliff Lee is 0-3 against the Rays this season, including an 0-2 record at The Trop, where he will pitch this afternoon - but if I've learned anything about predicting playoff baseball, it's that preexisting stats really don't matter.  That being said, I totally expect Cliff Lee to pick up where he left off last postseason...baffling hitters left and right.  All the Rangers really need to do is steal one game in St. Petersburg, where all 36 Rays fans, Dick Vitale included, don't really add much as an intimidating "10th man."  In fact, I think the obnoxious catwalks at Tropicana Field present more of a home-field advantage than the Rays' fans do.  If the Rangers can get back to Arlington with a win, I am confident that they will take both games at their home ballpark, which will be stoked to host their first playoff game since 1999.  After all, the Rangers have something to prove and are glad not to be playing the Yankees - since the Wild Card era (1995), Texas has been to the playoffs three times ('96, '98, '99) and has won only one game...losing all three ALDS appearances to the Yanks.

ALDS, New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins: Twins in 4

As is the same story every year since the beginning of time, Yankees fans will irrationally argue with anyone as to why they are destined to win the World Series.  Well, the Twins won't easily forget last year, where they worked so hard to claim a postseason birth, only to have the Yanks sweep them out.  Francisco Liriano may not be on the same level of 'acehood' as C.C. Sabathia, but the Twins' pitching staff is more complete than the Yanks' at this point.  Believe it or not, New Yorkers, there will come a time that Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera won't be able to pitch as well as they did in the 90's, and this is the year that the Yankees' "core 4" start to show their age.  With redemption on their mind and a brand new ball field, full of fans who are amped up to host Games 1 & 2 in sub-50 degree temperatures, the Twins might not even need to take a game in the Bronx to secure their first ticket to the ALCS since 2002.

NLDS, Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies: Reds in 4

It has baffled my mind since 2007, but I have to give the Phillies credit, because they have somehow been able to play up to their constantly over-hyped reputation.  Ok sure, they have a great-looking big 3 for their rotation, and while pitching is critical in the playoffs, you still need to score runs!  The Reds offense has been explosive this season, and they will continue to be, here in October.  One thing that I have noticed about the Phillies is that they really only play as well as they think of their reputation - when public opinion doubts the Phillies, they doubt themselves, and then we see the real Phillies.  I think that if the Reds can make a suspected god bleed in Game 1 or 2, the Phillies will start to shake in their boots, and will implode, to the Reds delight.  The Reds pitching is not as good as the Phillies pitching, but it's not bad.  Also, I think that Aroldis Chapman, and his 105-mph fastball will have a large roll to play in the late innings.  I would love to see a Phillies-Giants matchup so that the G-men can prove they have a better rotation, but I just honestly don't see the Phillies living up to expectations here.  Oh yea, look for Halladay to have some postseason debut jitters, and I think the Reds jump behind Edison Volquez to steal Game 1 today.

NLDS, Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants: Giants in 3

I don't think that anybody wants to see Bobby Cox go out like this, and I would have picked the Bravos to beat the Reds or Phillies, but the Braves drew the short straw and have to play the Giants in round 1.  It's no secret that the Braves ran out of steam towards the end of the season, and as much as they want to "win one for the gipper," the Giants' rotation is just too good.  I said at the end of last season that the Giants were the best team to not make the playoffs last year, and that if the Giants had made the playoffs last season, they probably would have won the World Series with the rotation that they have.  Well this is step 1 for the Giants to show the world that - when you have a staff of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and added bullpen help from Madison Bumgarner and seasoned veteran, Barry Zito - there is no way you will lose two games in a row...ever.  Powerful sweep here for the G-men.

ALCS, Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins: Twins in 7

In one of the least-watched ALCS matchups in recent memory, the dynamic duo of Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson will force the Twins to a Game 7, but the Twinkies' home-field advantage and team mindset will prevail, landing them in the Fall Classic for the first time since 1991.  The Rangers will walk away with their heads high though, having played for their first pennant since 1945, when the franchise was still the Washington Senators.

NLCS, Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants: Giants in 5

This is the series where people will finally wake up and say, "wow, the Giants pitching is really good."  Despite the fact that there offense is often criticized, the Giants have the perfect type of role-playing offense that compliments a dominant pitching staff in the playoffs.  Congrats to the Reds for making it this far, but this won't be much of a series.

 

World Series, Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants: Giants in 6

If the Yankees had the pitching rotation that the Giants had, we would be re-naming the Cy Young award after them.  But because they do their own thing, quietly, over in the city by the bay, nobody has taken the time to notice them.  Not only to the Giants boast three Cy Young awards on their staff (Lincecum '08, '09 & Zito '02), but they also made key offensive pickups throughout the season.  Buster Posey should win rookie-of-the-year, as long as the Jayson Heyward hype doesn't overshadow Posey's better numbers - Pablo Sandoval should return to his heroic, clutch performances of last season - and Brian Wilson can close the door on the 9th inning with the best of them.  Ladies and gentlemen, I don't know why you couldn't see it coming sooner, or why Vegas gave them 20:1 preseason odds, but I present to you your 2010 World Champions, the San Francisco Giants.

Enjoy the games today, we'll see ya in 2011.