A concept that is often discussed in our culture today is the amount of power and influence that the media has, particularly in the realm of politics. Well I would argue that their degree of power and influence extends to the realm of sports as well.
There was a piece I wanted to write over a year ago when the VCU Rams defeated my beloved Kansas Jayhawks in the 2011 NCAA March Madness tournament, as part of their dream journey to the Final Four. I was going to focus on how the media was the team that beat the Jayhawks, not the Rams. I'm not trying to minimize the enormous accomplishment of VCU, but the fact of the matter is that if that game was played in a closed gym, with no fans, no cameras, and no reporters, the Jayhawks would have squashed their competition.
Too bad for Kansas, that's not how sports work these days.
High profile sports are almost as much about what is going on off the court as it is about the talent that's actually on the court. Momentum, attitude, revenge, pride, fear, and confidence, are just as much skills to be considered as the physical threats of speed, strength, size, and game smarts. By time VCU ran into the high-seeded Jayhawks, they had a nation full of underdog fans pulling for them, and a strong media following in their corner, pronouncing them as the best thing since sliced bread. The Jayhawks found themselves with nothing to gain and everything to lose, while the Rams were looking at the exact opposite situation. Though the Rams played at their highest level to win the game, it was the fact that Kansas didn't play at their highest level that cost them the chance to win. When a team like VCU can keep it close, an NCAAB tyrant like Kansas is no longer just playing basketball, their fighting against the demons in their head of a possible loss to a double-digit seed.
High profile sports are almost as much about what is going on off the court as it is about the talent that's actually on the court. Momentum, attitude, revenge, pride, fear, and confidence, are just as much skills to be considered as the physical threats of speed, strength, size, and game smarts. By time VCU ran into the high-seeded Jayhawks, they had a nation full of underdog fans pulling for them, and a strong media following in their corner, pronouncing them as the best thing since sliced bread. The Jayhawks found themselves with nothing to gain and everything to lose, while the Rams were looking at the exact opposite situation. Though the Rams played at their highest level to win the game, it was the fact that Kansas didn't play at their highest level that cost them the chance to win. When a team like VCU can keep it close, an NCAAB tyrant like Kansas is no longer just playing basketball, their fighting against the demons in their head of a possible loss to a double-digit seed.
Transitioning the discussion to tonight's Game 7 in Miami - I know that many people say they "hate" the NBA. I get it. The games seem pointless because a double-digit lead at halftime is worth about just as much as a Matt Hasselbeck guarantee in overtime. I don't disagree, and won't watch much NBA regular season for that reason. However, I can admit that the NBA playoffs are something I truly enjoy following because I don't have a favorite team, and can unbiasedly enjoy the drama that ensues over the two-month postseason. With that in mind, I'll weigh in on tonight's game.
Rewind to about two weeks ago. You have a geriatric, slow, and injured Boston Celtics team (the Perkins-Green trade never looked more dumb) matching up against a youthful, star-led, and fast Miami Heat team. The only dispute in the sports media world was whether or not the Heat would be able to pull off the sweep, or if the Celts could steal a game.
Through the first two games of the series, everything went according to script - the Heat were up 2-0, Boston looked slower than ever, and despite outplaying the Heat in Game 2, they still couldn't win. For all intents and purposes the series was over. The media was already beginning the discussion about the break up of Boston's core players, and starting the dramatic storyline of LeBron James having another shot at a ring. Not so fast, say the Celts.
Boston would proceed to win back-to-back games at home and entered Game 5 having outplayed Miami in 3 of the 4 games of the series. But what were the storylines heading into Game 5? Boston still had no chance - Miami was convincingly favored to win at at home, giving them a chance to win one of the two final games to make it to the finals. Boston still had very few people outside of the New England region thinking they could win. (That's not to say that the majority of the country wasn't rooting against LeBron...but when cash was being put down, it was largely in Miami's favor.)
Meanwhile, let's explore the mindset that entered into the heads of the Heat players down the stretch of Game 5 (holy crap, if we lose this game, we can't win in Boston). Soon the momentum started to swing - doubt found itself on the side of the Heat, while the aging Celtics were fueled by stealing a win nobody thought they could have. End result; Celtics win Game 5, go up 3-2, and have now out-played the Heat in 4 of 5 games in the series.
Enter Thursday night. Oh how the winds have changed. You can't find a reporter on any corner of the planet who will admit to predicting a Miami sweep just a week ago. All of a sudden, everyone is rocking out their best green & white, as it's a foregone conclusion that the Celts are going to wrap things up at home. In fact, the main storyline in the media for the 48 hours between Game 5 and 6 is that the Heat are already done, is Erik Spoelstra going to be fired? Are the "big three" going to be split up? What will Pat Riley do? And all that other blah, blah blah.
Time to look back at those "off-the-court skills" I mentioned earlier. The Heat were now the underdogs with something to prove. The media was literally treating them as if they had already lost the series, so in theory they had nothing to lose. Meanwhile the Celtics had some demons haunting them, 1) they were 11-13 in recent closeout games heading into Game 6 and 2) oh no, if they lose Game 6, how could they ever win Game 7 in Miami? And so, the Celtics, a team that managed all their success in the series via being doubted and forgotten, had now become the team with the expectations...expectations that I was confident they wouldn't (really couldn't) live up to.
You see, if you played this series in a closed gym - no cameras, no microphones, no reporters, the Heat would win in 4 or 5 games easy. Yet again, that's not how we do sports these days. And that is what has given the Celtics a chance to be competing in a series that they physically can't handle, and it is what will once again give them the edge in tonight's Game 7. The only way the Celtics can win ANY game against the Heat is when the intangibles are on their side, which they weren't in Game 6.
If sporting competitions always went to the side with the best physical skills, nobody would watch and there would be no market for gambling or odds because it would be too easy to win. It's the dramatic storylines, the inevitable mystery of who can bring their A-game, who has the most to prove, who can make the big shot with the weight of the world on their shoulders, and who is most cohesive as an operating unit; it's those things that decide team-related outcomes, not odds. It's because of intangibles that the Green Bay Packers didn't win the Super Bowl, that the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series, that the 1980 USA hockey team won the gold medal, and that the United States of America won the Revolutionary War...all unlikely outcomes.
Now I'm not saying that underdogs always win and that favorites always lose. It's simply not true. I am saying though, that on a situational basis, you can use the intangibles surrounding a game to predict the outcome better than you can based on the stats or any physical talents.
So, here's why I'm taking Boston tonight. The tables have turned yet again - like the beginning of the series, nobody is giving the Celtics a chance, the people who had them wrapping it up in 6 have disappeared (oh how 48 minutes can make a difference), the talk is back to how old and slow the Celtics looked in Game 6, and it is apparently a foregone conclusion that we will have a Heat/Thunder showdown in the Finals. In fact, the Heat are favored by 7 points against a team that has outplayed them in 4 out of 6 games! (If you're putting money down on this game, taking the spread for Boston looks pretty good to me).
What we stupidly forget, because we are such an immediate culture that lives in the "now," is that this is how the Celts prefer it. They like having no chance. KG likes being told that he is old. They like their backs against the wall with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Game 6 was an abomination, LeBron played his best game while KG, Pierce, Rondo, and Allen all arguably played their worst games. As a team Boston went 1-for-14 from downtown. It's hilarious to me that pundits are using Game 6 as a credible source for a Game 7 prediction - that's like using the tabloids as scholarly sources in a biography.
On the other side, the Heat have now redeemed themselves, and have earned a shoulder's-full of expectations to go with it. There is now no doubt that they will win, which makes the thought of losing that much more unbearable. LeBron couldn't have choked in Game 6 where critics were already speaking of his demise, but now how does he back up such a masterful performance? The distance to fall is that much greater.
If there has been one consistency in this series, it's that the team with something to prove comes out on top. Now of course Miami has something to prove over the course of a whole season, but I don't think that applies tonight. Tonight, in a concentrated context of one game, Miami has allegedly "already won." It is Boston that is too old, too slow, time to hang it up, blew their chance in Game 6, outmatched by LeBron. It is the Celtics that now have the Heat right where they want them...looking down on them from the pedestal of expectations. A pedestal that I anticipate Boston is now emotionally refueled to climb.
Predictions: Rondo limits his turnovers, Pierce doesn't foul like an idiot and shoots well, KG reasserts his dominance in paint, Allen, Pietrus, and Dooling make some timely 3's, LeBron drops a "contained 40" (which is sad, but true), and then when the game is over - Twitter explodes and the apocalypse happens 6 months early, everyone at ESPN acts like they saw this coming, and most importantly, some little kid repeatedly shouts "good job" as LeBron walks through the tunnel for the last time this season.
Boston 91, Miami 87.
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| Like Game 5, Paul Pierce will again have to be "The Truth" for the Celtics to grab Game 7. |
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