Thursday, July 22, 2010

You Just Never Know


Who woulda thunk?

Diamondbacks prove that Mariano is mortal. Giants and Angels go to 7 games in the West Coast World Series. Marlins swim up-stream. Red Sox shock the world. White Sox play in first World Series since the 50's.  Cardinals are the "Champs," but only win 83 games.  Red Sox don't shock anyone.  Phillies make Jimmy Rollins look like a modern-day Nostradamus.  Yankees finally nail down the right formula.  Wow, what a decade.

All these wonderful and dramatic story-lines defined the first decade of this new millennium, how the heck could we even begin to anticipate what the next ten years will bring?  Who are we kidding, we can't...and that's the magic of this wonderful game.  The last storyline that preceded a new decade was the 2000 Subway Series with Mike Piazza dodging bat ammunition from Roger Clemens.  We had no idea, then, what to expect over the next ten years.  We couldn't even fathom what the Red Sox winning a World Series would look like...let alone coming back from 3-0 against the Yankees.  We didn't know who Albert Pujols was!! Or Miguel Cabrera, or Carlos Beltran, or Joe Mauer, Tim Lincecum, Grady Sizemore, among others... .  Michael Lewis' New York Times Bestseller, Moneyball, hadn't been written yet.  We didn't know anything about the decade's most popular General Manager, Billy Beane, renowned statistician Bill James, and the concept of sabermetrics was foreign to our minds.

And here we are, ten years later.  The Cubs still haven't been to a World Series, the Royals haven't contended for anything, the Yankees and Red Sox still try to out-move each other in the off-season, and the Pirates still have not had a winning season.  But that's what makes it interesting, all it takes is one moment for all of that to change.  The next Albert Pujols could be playing in his first season this year (cough cough, Jason Heyward) or he could be in his freshman year of high school, or he could even be signing up for his first year of tee-ball this Spring.  The bottom line is that we don't know what this decade holds for us as baseball fans - but we can be sure of one thing, when we hit 2020 and look back over these upcoming 10 years, we will be able to sum it up with one word, "wow."

For starters, just look at the memorable occurrences that have already taken place in the first half of the season.  We've had perfect games from Dallas Braden and Roy Halladay, and Armando Galarraga...kinda.  We've seen the Major League debuts of young kids with superstar potential - Jason Heyward, Steven Strasburg, Buster Posey, Michael Stanton, Carlos Santana, etc... .  And in terms of looking at it from the decade perspective, we're only just teeing off. 

But let's look closer at the season now - we're one half of the way in, and although we've seen a couple of surprising team performances this year, a true student of the game knows that it is way too early to put much stock into the standings at this point of the season.  The best example in recent memory, of counting chickens before they hatch came in the 2005 season, where the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles were both in first place of their respective divisions at the all-star break.  Meanwhile, the two teams finished in 5th and 4th place of their divisions, respectively.

So my message - with all the aforementioned in mind - is to take it all in and enjoy it for what its worth.  If you're a Reds or Padres fan, who knows how long your surprise success will last...so, soak up the moment.  If you're a Pirates fan, you must never forget the frustration you feel right now because some day, it will make the success you experience taste that much better...so, soak up the moment.  If you are a Mets or Braves fan, experiencing a season of roller-coaster emotions, appreciate the fact that your season has meant something from day 1...so, soak up the moment.  This wonderful game is all about soaking up moments - from the amazing moments of the last decade, to the earliest moments of this next 10 years, soak them all up, enjoy them for what they are worth, and never get too attached to how things "are" because all it really takes to change everything is, well, just a simple moment.

For kicks and giggles, here are some end-of-the-year predictions...

*wildcard

AL East.
Boston
New York*
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore

> Half of Boston's roster is in the infirmary, and they are still keeping pace.  Just wait till they get healthy - getting Victor Martinez, Josh Beckett, and Jacoby Elsbury back in the second half is like making 3 blockbuster trades at the deadline.

AL Central.
Minnesota
Detroit
Chicago
Cleveland
Kansas City

> I think that the Twinkies have the most balanced team, which will the give them the ability to outlast the Tiggers and the ChiSox.  Although big props to the Sox for getting red hot in the middle of the season.

AL West.
Texas
Los Angeles
Oakland
Seattle

> Cliff Lee to the Rangers pretty much solidifies their first NL West title in a while.

NL East.
Atlanta
New York*
Florida
Philadelphia
Washington

> The Phils have been playing way above their level for far too long - ladies and gentlemen, I give you, the real Philadelphia Phillies.  And you shouldn't be surprised at the Mets - they've been playing way below their level for far too long - ladies and gentlemen, I give you, the real New York Mets.

NL Central.
St. Louis
Cincinnati
Chicago
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh
Houston

> Great run for the Reds, but once the Cards get Penny back - that rotation is going to be out of control, period.  Matt Holliday just needs to catch the ball in the postseason.

NL West.
San Francisco
San Diego
Los Angeles
Colorado
Arizona

> San Francisco might have the best starting rotation in all of baseball, and once their 2-time Cy Young winner, Tim Lincecum, get his act together, they won't be losing many games.  They should probably pick up another bat before the waiver deadline in August though.


                                 ALDS.                                                                       NLDS.
    BOS def. MIN(4)   /   NYY def. TEX (4)             STL def. NYM(4)   /   SF def. ATL (5)

ALCS.
BOS def. NYY (7)

NLCS.
SF def. STL (6)
WS.
SF def. BOS (7)

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