Look Out Below

It's about that time for the highly anticipated NFL playoffs.  After a long season of impressive comeback stories (Vick, Big Ben), surprising contenders (Chiefs, Bucs), and disappointing pretenders (Vikings, Cowboys, Chargers), we have it narrowed down to the field of 12 (really 11, but we're obligated to include the Seahawks).  Looking at this year's Wildcard Weekend matchups you could really make an argument for any team to win any game.  In fact, with the exception of the Seahawks, Chiefs, and Jets, any of the other 9 teams could win the Super Bowl and I don't think it would be a surprise.

Enough small talk though, here's some key points that I'm thinking about for this year's postseason...

> A River In Egypt...Denial - I have hated the Patriots for so long, that I am actually incapable of envisioning them as the Super Bowl Champs.  Some people just want to see a team lose because they hate them, but I actually believe the Patriots cannot win because I despise them so much.  So off the bat, there is some bias here.  At the same time they DID lose to the Browns, so they are far from invincible.

> The Two Dark Horses - I'm a firm believer that a team with something to prove, or a team that has been insulted is a most dangerous team.  Ironically enough, in this case, it's the two Super Bowl contenders from last year.  Due to the Colts having several players in the infirmary along with the Steelers and Pats hogging headlines, the Colts are a forgotten team this year.  Though I would give the Jets a 10% chance of pulling off a first round upset, it's hard to ignore that the last time the Colts were forgotten about in the playoffs, they won it all.  As for the Saints, I don't know how an 11-win team can fly under the radar, but for whatever reason some people are even picking Seattle to beat them in the 1st game...are you kidding?  Watch out for an angry Saints team.

> One Man Show - I never really believed when one defensive player got a ton of hype on a football team, because basic math says there are too many guys out there for one guy to change the game.  Meet Troy Polamalu.  Over the last two seasons the Steelers are 5-7 without him, and 16-4 with him.  He literally takes their defense from average at best, to nearly impenetrable.  In the playoffs the best defense usually prevails...it's hard to pick against the Steelers.

> Getting Over The Hump - It's fitting that the Jets, Ravens, Eagles, and Packers are playing on "wildcard weekend" because they are all definitely wildcard choices.  All four of them have made several playoff appearances in the last decade, and they have all faced early exits, as well as making deep runs. That being said, the only time one of them took home a ring was when the Ravens did it in 2001.  Any one of them could get hot for 4 games and make a deep run.

Enough beating around the bush though - if you put a loaded nerf gun to my head and forced me to pick, here's what it would look like (home team in italics):

Week 1
Saints def. Seahawks
Packers def. Eagles
Colts def. Jets
Ravens def. Chiefs

Week 2
Patriots def. Ravens
Steelers def. Colts
Packers def. Falcons
Bears def. Saints

Conference Championships
Steelers def. Patriots
Packers def. Bears

Super Bowl
Packers def. Steelers

While I am being too lazy to offer game-by-game analysis, I will defend my ultimate pick.  The Packers have lost 6 games this season.  Four of those losses were by 3 points, and the other two losses were by 4 points.  They went into Atlanta where the Falcons are supposedly invincible, and only lost by 3.  AND they went into New England and only lost by 4 points, with Matt Flynn at quarterback.

Clay Matthews leads a potent Packers defense.

The common theme here is that the Packers have had a chance to win every game this season, despite a non-existent running attack and an Aaron Rodgers concussion.  It all falls back to the strength of their defense.  Of all the playoff teams, how many could lose their best player and still compete?  The Colts without Manning...done.  Steelers without Troy...done.  Pats without Brady...done.  Falcons without Matt Ryan...done.  Saints without Brees...done.  Eagles without Vick...done.  Ravens without Ray Lewis...done.  Bears without Urlacher...done.  Jets, Seahawks, Chiefs...they're done anyway.  Sure, not everyone will be playing without their best player, but my point is that the Packers have proved the depth of their team throughout the season.  Despite having the worst seed in the conference at #6, the Pack are looking poised to make a deep run, so the rest of the league better look out below.

Giddyup Cowboys!

Alright, we know what happened - nobody is trying to deny it.  The Cowboys tanked; they totally tanked.  They talked all this big game before the season started, and they didn't back it up.  They lost their pro-bowl quarterback.  They let teams walk all over them.  They waited way too long to give Wade Phillips the heave-ho.  They even lost to the Vikings...ouch.  And most embarrassing of all, after so much hard work to get the new stadium built and to land the 'big game,' their home will be another team's celebration station for the Super Bowl...or will it?

True to form, always in support of a great underdog story, let me tell you why the Dallas Cowboys may be dead, but not quite buried.  The way that they have played the last two games, particularly on the road against the Giants, is only surprising to us because they were 1-7 prior to those games.  For example, if we rewind back to late August and looked at the schedule, we probably would have said how these mid-season games with the Giants and Saints would be evenly-matched, or maybe even in favor of the Boys.  But now because they are 3-7 we allow that to dictate our expectations.  While that mindset is valid to an extent, I like to look at it from a different angle and say that the way the Cowboys have played under Jason Garrett the last two weeks is how they are actually capable of playing all the time; it's actually how they should have been playing all season.  So if any team could run off an eight-game winning streak to close the season, I wouldn't put it past the Cowboys that we thought we would see this season.

By no means would it be an easy task - with two games left against the Michael Vicks...oh, I mean the Eagles, and with a game to play in Indianapolis, the Cowboys would definitely need some favor from the football gods to pull it off, that's for sure.  My point is that it is not out-of-the-question for them to pull out some big wins in some close battles.  And if they can, teams better watch their backs.  Because in the event that the Cowboys can sneak into the playoffs at 9-7, they are the last team that I would want to play.  In John C. Maxwell's 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership he speaks about the concept of The Big Mo, which is his reference to motivation.  Heading into the postseason, the Boys would have some serious Mo on their side, and once you're in the playoffs, your record really doesn't matter anymore.

Tony Romo is hoping that he will have a good reason to return in December.

So will this immaculate turn-around happen? Probably not.  Will the Cowboys finish 9-7? Doubtful.  If they do finish 9-7, will that be good enough to make the playoffs? Not likely.  And on the long-shot that they sneak in to the postseason, will the Boys be able to win a ton of do-or-die games on the road? Don't count on it.  But despite all of the odds against them, I am putting Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints on upset watch today for their Thanksgiving showdown in Dallas.  After the last two weeks there's no doubt that the players in that Dallas locker room are thinking about hitting that 9-7 mark.  And if they can defend their home turf today, the worst nightmare of many teams will start to grow, because those same players in that same Dallas locker-room won't be thinking about 9-7 anymore, they'll be believing it.