2012 NFL Playoffs: Deja Vu

According to the Mayans this will be the last NFL postseason that we ever have.  If that is the case, we will definitely be ending the history of the league on a high note.  After a long off-season which featured much ambiguity as to whether football would even be played in Fall 2011, the league, owners, and players reached a deal that ended the strike in time to get us a full season.  The only loss was some time to prep through preseason games and workouts, but that’s far better than having an adjusted schedule, like the NBA.  Imagine if the NFL started at the end of October with teams playing on Sundays AND Wednesdays…yea, crazy.

So the storylines of this year were plenty.  After the prequel of the strike, things got under way quickly with the Aaron Rodgers/Drew Brees shootout on opening night.  I remember that one fondly because I thought Rodgers’ three 1^st quarter touchdowns were just the beginning of a big fantasy night, as my opponent and older brother, was featuring Brees in his lineup.  Sure enough, Brees ended the night with more fantasy points, but Rodgers came out with the W…the first of 13 in a row to start the season.

In addition, 2011 featured the Buffalo Bills circling the wagons better than most, with a 4-1 start, including a comeback win over Bill Belichick’s notorious Patriots.  Then, shortly after dipping into their savings account for Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills followed up their hot start with a 2-9 finish.  Other top storylines included Jim Harbaugh’s turnaround of the 49ers, leading them to a division crown and first round bye, despite his 16-6 loss to his big brother and the Ravens on Thanksgiving.

Finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Cam Newton’s dominance, the Colts’ almost “defeated” season, the Dolphins’ 6-3 finish to an 0-7 start, the Texans investing in their own personal hospital since their  players (mainly any QB named Matt) were maxing out bed space in Houston, the Bears losing their top two offensive threats in consecutive weeks, the Chargers underachieving and not firing their coach (wait I thought that was 2010, or 2008, no maybe 2009…meh, too hard to keep track), Rex Ryan talking the talk while being unable to walk the walk (maybe he should walk on a treadmill this off-season), the “dream team” in Philly finishing at a nightmarish 8-8, and of course Tim Tebow charming people into thinking he can play quarterback, followed by reality setting in and him closing the season with QB stats that ranked 34^th in a 32-team league.

And now time for the main reason we are here today, some futures picks for the 2012 NFL playoffs.  Before getting into the actual picks, I will make some standard disclaimers.  I’ll then follow up the picks with a couple of game notes, but there will be no lengthy game-by-game analysis…I’ll leave that to ESPN and their 297 hours of pre-playoff coverage and speculation.

> The Curse Has Been Lifted – After hating the New England Patriots for most of my life and being unable to remain neutral in picking their games, I can now admit that I am a recovered hater.   I still strongly dislike the Patriots, but after they gave Tim Tebow the beating that he deserved, I felt like the Grinch with my heart growing to at least respect the Pats.  So there is no more issue with me not picking the Patriots just because I hate them.

> The TOR – When in grad school, one of my student employees noted that I made many of my sports picks based on the “Inzirillo Theory of Redemption.”  This theory claims that despite some statistical data, certain teams have a marked intangible advantage over an opponent because of their momentum and mindset based on a previous experience.  For example if two teams, in any sport, had fairly comparable talent but one was on a 5-game winning streak, and the other a 5-game losing streak, I would be hesitant to pick against the latter of the two, because they are “due for a win.”  Just wanted to put that out there, as it might come into play for some of my picks.

> The Loneliest Number – One truly is the loneliest number and this year’s lonely team is the Denver Broncos.  They are lonely because the 11 other playoff teams fall into the category of “have a chance to win a Super Bowl.”  The Broncos are a Marion Barber fumble away from not being in the playoffs and were lucky to back their way in with a loss at home to Kansas City…and the QB (Kyle Orton, #redemption) that they chased out of town.  Of course there are teams that are more likely to go all the way than others, but any of the 11 teams could win and it wouldn’t be a total shocker.  However, if the Broncos win on Tebow’s 3/29 passing, 26 passing yards, 38 rushing yards, and somehow 2 receptions, it will simply confirm that December 21, 2012 will indeed be the end of the world.

> New Kids On The Block – This year’s playoffs feature a balanced roster of teams with six returners and six teams not featured in the 2011 postseason.  Of the six newbies, the Broncos have already been addressed, while the Bengals and Giants are not unfamiliar to the playoff scene.  That leaves us with the Texans, Niners, and Lions.  Houston will be playing in the first playoff game in franchise history, San Francisco hasn’t played a postseason game since 2002, meanwhile Detroit has not been to the playoffs since 1999 and they haven’t won a playoff game since 1991.  One of these teams has a wildcard game on the road (DET), one has a wildcard game at home (HOU), and one has a first-round-bye (SF)…should be interesting to see if they can succeed despite a lack of recent postseason experience.

> Time To Pee Or Get Off The Pot – The Ravens, Giants, and Patriots have all won a championship in this century, but they also all haven’t done much lately in terms of postseason success.  Year after year all three teams are in the thick of things, and then they either narrowly miss the playoffs, or get eliminated before things get serious.  Meanwhile the Falcons are making their third playoff birth in the last four years, but have yet to notch a win.  Will one of these mainstay competitors finally step up to the plate?

> The Champs Are Here – Not only is it fascinating that 12 of the last 15 Super Bowl titles were won by franchises that are in the playoffs this year, but the last four consecutive SB Champs are in the postseason pool.  The Giants, Steelers, Saints, and Packers have won the last four championships, respectively.  Clearly there is some longevity to their dominance, can one of them claim their second title in a 5-year period?

And now for the picks (home team in Italics):

Week 1.

Texans def. Bengals

Saints def. Lions

Giants def. Falcons

Steelers def. Broncos

Sure, the Texans have lost three in a row, but it was after they clinched the division.  I’m not saying that they lost on purpose, but they didn’t have their backs against the wall.  I think they will bring everything they have in a must-win game and TJ Yates manages a good game.  As for the Saints, here’s the theory of redemption at play – after Seattle upset them and dealt them a first round exit last year, the Saints will have playoff redemption on the mind…no way they lose at home.  The Giants seem to only lose games that they are clearly supposed to win (see: Redskins, Seahawks, Redskins again).  So due to the fact that they aren’t a run-away favorite against Atlanta, I like them to come through.  In addition, the Falcons wedged their way into the playoffs with a soft schedule down the stretch – their Week 7 win against Detroit is their only victory against a team with a winning record this season.  Finally, although Tebow is getting lucky with a few Steelers injuries, their defense will still own him.  And listen people, let’s not freak out if Denver pulls off a miracle, remember how quickly the hype about Seattle’s 1^st round upset died last year after the Bears sent them home.

Week 2.

49ers def. Saints

Steelers def. Patriots

Ravens def. Texans

Packers def. Giants

These four games were the hardest to pick.  In a straight matchup at a neutral site I would take the Saints over SanFran, but there are too many advantages for the Niners.  SanFran will be well rested AND at home, where their only loss was to Dallas in overtime in week 2.  New Orleans has been so inconsistent on the road, with shocking losses at Tampa Bay and St. Louis earlier this season.  That, in addition to the 49ers having more time to game-plan for Brees gave the Niners the very slight edge in my book (can’t wait to see Vegas’ line on that game).  Moving on, I was tempted to take the Pats to prove how much I am not biased against them, but the truth is to just look at what their swiss cheese defense gave up to Tebow.  The Steelers solid offensive system, plus their proven ability to contain Brady gives them the edge.  And yes, I checked, Belichick has gone 0-2 against a non-division foe in the same season before (2006 Colts).  I’ll take the Ravens over the injured Texans, with Baltimore having more time to prep and due for a big playoff win - great season for Houston though, definitely something to build on.  Finally, I wanted to pick the Giants to upset the Packers, the way that they did to the Pats in Super Bowl XLII, but there is just no way they can go to Lambeau and win.

Conference Championship.

Steelers def. Ravens

Packers def. 49ers

Again employing the theory of redemption I cannot see the Ravens beating the Steelers three times in the same season, even if they are hosting.  Plus the Ravens have been too inconsistent this season to beat a team that is so solid on both sides of the ball.  When it comes to the NFC, the marked advantages the Niners had over the Saints will both be gone – they will now be on the road, and at equal resting/prep time with a superior Packers unit.

Super Bowl.

Packers def. Steelers

I hate doing this to the Steel City, but we haven’t had a repeat champion since the Pats in ‘04/’05, and we haven’t had a repeat SB matchup since Dallas and Buffalo in ‘93/’94, with the Cowboys winning both times.  I just think that the Packers match up well against the Steelers, and Aaron Rodgers is excellent indoors.  As of last year’s SB, Rodgers' dome passer rating was 111.5, and that number has only increased this season.  I think it will be another great game, like last year, and only showcases the lasting dominance that both of these franchises have in their respective conferences.

SB XXVIII in 1994 was the last time we witnessed a repeat matchup.

Now, what do I know?  I’m just a guy with a laptop.  I’m hoping that I can outdo myself from last year’s picks where I went 8/11 in playoff games.  But the simplest truth about football is that on “any given Sunday” any team can beat any team.  Either way, right or wrong, and especially if the Mayans know what they’re talking about, the NFL playoffs will be going out with a bang, and they sure are going to be great to watch.

Look Out Below

It's about that time for the highly anticipated NFL playoffs.  After a long season of impressive comeback stories (Vick, Big Ben), surprising contenders (Chiefs, Bucs), and disappointing pretenders (Vikings, Cowboys, Chargers), we have it narrowed down to the field of 12 (really 11, but we're obligated to include the Seahawks).  Looking at this year's Wildcard Weekend matchups you could really make an argument for any team to win any game.  In fact, with the exception of the Seahawks, Chiefs, and Jets, any of the other 9 teams could win the Super Bowl and I don't think it would be a surprise.

Enough small talk though, here's some key points that I'm thinking about for this year's postseason...

> A River In Egypt...Denial - I have hated the Patriots for so long, that I am actually incapable of envisioning them as the Super Bowl Champs.  Some people just want to see a team lose because they hate them, but I actually believe the Patriots cannot win because I despise them so much.  So off the bat, there is some bias here.  At the same time they DID lose to the Browns, so they are far from invincible.

> The Two Dark Horses - I'm a firm believer that a team with something to prove, or a team that has been insulted is a most dangerous team.  Ironically enough, in this case, it's the two Super Bowl contenders from last year.  Due to the Colts having several players in the infirmary along with the Steelers and Pats hogging headlines, the Colts are a forgotten team this year.  Though I would give the Jets a 10% chance of pulling off a first round upset, it's hard to ignore that the last time the Colts were forgotten about in the playoffs, they won it all.  As for the Saints, I don't know how an 11-win team can fly under the radar, but for whatever reason some people are even picking Seattle to beat them in the 1st game...are you kidding?  Watch out for an angry Saints team.

> One Man Show - I never really believed when one defensive player got a ton of hype on a football team, because basic math says there are too many guys out there for one guy to change the game.  Meet Troy Polamalu.  Over the last two seasons the Steelers are 5-7 without him, and 16-4 with him.  He literally takes their defense from average at best, to nearly impenetrable.  In the playoffs the best defense usually prevails...it's hard to pick against the Steelers.

> Getting Over The Hump - It's fitting that the Jets, Ravens, Eagles, and Packers are playing on "wildcard weekend" because they are all definitely wildcard choices.  All four of them have made several playoff appearances in the last decade, and they have all faced early exits, as well as making deep runs. That being said, the only time one of them took home a ring was when the Ravens did it in 2001.  Any one of them could get hot for 4 games and make a deep run.

Enough beating around the bush though - if you put a loaded nerf gun to my head and forced me to pick, here's what it would look like (home team in italics):

Week 1
Saints def. Seahawks
Packers def. Eagles
Colts def. Jets
Ravens def. Chiefs

Week 2
Patriots def. Ravens
Steelers def. Colts
Packers def. Falcons
Bears def. Saints

Conference Championships
Steelers def. Patriots
Packers def. Bears

Super Bowl
Packers def. Steelers

While I am being too lazy to offer game-by-game analysis, I will defend my ultimate pick.  The Packers have lost 6 games this season.  Four of those losses were by 3 points, and the other two losses were by 4 points.  They went into Atlanta where the Falcons are supposedly invincible, and only lost by 3.  AND they went into New England and only lost by 4 points, with Matt Flynn at quarterback.

Clay Matthews leads a potent Packers defense.

The common theme here is that the Packers have had a chance to win every game this season, despite a non-existent running attack and an Aaron Rodgers concussion.  It all falls back to the strength of their defense.  Of all the playoff teams, how many could lose their best player and still compete?  The Colts without Manning...done.  Steelers without Troy...done.  Pats without Brady...done.  Falcons without Matt Ryan...done.  Saints without Brees...done.  Eagles without Vick...done.  Ravens without Ray Lewis...done.  Bears without Urlacher...done.  Jets, Seahawks, Chiefs...they're done anyway.  Sure, not everyone will be playing without their best player, but my point is that the Packers have proved the depth of their team throughout the season.  Despite having the worst seed in the conference at #6, the Pack are looking poised to make a deep run, so the rest of the league better look out below.

Giddyup Cowboys!

Alright, we know what happened - nobody is trying to deny it.  The Cowboys tanked; they totally tanked.  They talked all this big game before the season started, and they didn't back it up.  They lost their pro-bowl quarterback.  They let teams walk all over them.  They waited way too long to give Wade Phillips the heave-ho.  They even lost to the Vikings...ouch.  And most embarrassing of all, after so much hard work to get the new stadium built and to land the 'big game,' their home will be another team's celebration station for the Super Bowl...or will it?

True to form, always in support of a great underdog story, let me tell you why the Dallas Cowboys may be dead, but not quite buried.  The way that they have played the last two games, particularly on the road against the Giants, is only surprising to us because they were 1-7 prior to those games.  For example, if we rewind back to late August and looked at the schedule, we probably would have said how these mid-season games with the Giants and Saints would be evenly-matched, or maybe even in favor of the Boys.  But now because they are 3-7 we allow that to dictate our expectations.  While that mindset is valid to an extent, I like to look at it from a different angle and say that the way the Cowboys have played under Jason Garrett the last two weeks is how they are actually capable of playing all the time; it's actually how they should have been playing all season.  So if any team could run off an eight-game winning streak to close the season, I wouldn't put it past the Cowboys that we thought we would see this season.

By no means would it be an easy task - with two games left against the Michael Vicks...oh, I mean the Eagles, and with a game to play in Indianapolis, the Cowboys would definitely need some favor from the football gods to pull it off, that's for sure.  My point is that it is not out-of-the-question for them to pull out some big wins in some close battles.  And if they can, teams better watch their backs.  Because in the event that the Cowboys can sneak into the playoffs at 9-7, they are the last team that I would want to play.  In John C. Maxwell's 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership he speaks about the concept of The Big Mo, which is his reference to motivation.  Heading into the postseason, the Boys would have some serious Mo on their side, and once you're in the playoffs, your record really doesn't matter anymore.

Tony Romo is hoping that he will have a good reason to return in December.

So will this immaculate turn-around happen? Probably not.  Will the Cowboys finish 9-7? Doubtful.  If they do finish 9-7, will that be good enough to make the playoffs? Not likely.  And on the long-shot that they sneak in to the postseason, will the Boys be able to win a ton of do-or-die games on the road? Don't count on it.  But despite all of the odds against them, I am putting Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints on upset watch today for their Thanksgiving showdown in Dallas.  After the last two weeks there's no doubt that the players in that Dallas locker room are thinking about hitting that 9-7 mark.  And if they can defend their home turf today, the worst nightmare of many teams will start to grow, because those same players in that same Dallas locker-room won't be thinking about 9-7 anymore, they'll be believing it.