2012 NFL Playoffs: Deja Vu

According to the Mayans this will be the last NFL postseason that we ever have.  If that is the case, we will definitely be ending the history of the league on a high note.  After a long off-season which featured much ambiguity as to whether football would even be played in Fall 2011, the league, owners, and players reached a deal that ended the strike in time to get us a full season.  The only loss was some time to prep through preseason games and workouts, but that’s far better than having an adjusted schedule, like the NBA.  Imagine if the NFL started at the end of October with teams playing on Sundays AND Wednesdays…yea, crazy.

So the storylines of this year were plenty.  After the prequel of the strike, things got under way quickly with the Aaron Rodgers/Drew Brees shootout on opening night.  I remember that one fondly because I thought Rodgers’ three 1^st quarter touchdowns were just the beginning of a big fantasy night, as my opponent and older brother, was featuring Brees in his lineup.  Sure enough, Brees ended the night with more fantasy points, but Rodgers came out with the W…the first of 13 in a row to start the season.

In addition, 2011 featured the Buffalo Bills circling the wagons better than most, with a 4-1 start, including a comeback win over Bill Belichick’s notorious Patriots.  Then, shortly after dipping into their savings account for Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills followed up their hot start with a 2-9 finish.  Other top storylines included Jim Harbaugh’s turnaround of the 49ers, leading them to a division crown and first round bye, despite his 16-6 loss to his big brother and the Ravens on Thanksgiving.

Finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Cam Newton’s dominance, the Colts’ almost “defeated” season, the Dolphins’ 6-3 finish to an 0-7 start, the Texans investing in their own personal hospital since their  players (mainly any QB named Matt) were maxing out bed space in Houston, the Bears losing their top two offensive threats in consecutive weeks, the Chargers underachieving and not firing their coach (wait I thought that was 2010, or 2008, no maybe 2009…meh, too hard to keep track), Rex Ryan talking the talk while being unable to walk the walk (maybe he should walk on a treadmill this off-season), the “dream team” in Philly finishing at a nightmarish 8-8, and of course Tim Tebow charming people into thinking he can play quarterback, followed by reality setting in and him closing the season with QB stats that ranked 34^th in a 32-team league.

And now time for the main reason we are here today, some futures picks for the 2012 NFL playoffs.  Before getting into the actual picks, I will make some standard disclaimers.  I’ll then follow up the picks with a couple of game notes, but there will be no lengthy game-by-game analysis…I’ll leave that to ESPN and their 297 hours of pre-playoff coverage and speculation.

> The Curse Has Been Lifted – After hating the New England Patriots for most of my life and being unable to remain neutral in picking their games, I can now admit that I am a recovered hater.   I still strongly dislike the Patriots, but after they gave Tim Tebow the beating that he deserved, I felt like the Grinch with my heart growing to at least respect the Pats.  So there is no more issue with me not picking the Patriots just because I hate them.

> The TOR – When in grad school, one of my student employees noted that I made many of my sports picks based on the “Inzirillo Theory of Redemption.”  This theory claims that despite some statistical data, certain teams have a marked intangible advantage over an opponent because of their momentum and mindset based on a previous experience.  For example if two teams, in any sport, had fairly comparable talent but one was on a 5-game winning streak, and the other a 5-game losing streak, I would be hesitant to pick against the latter of the two, because they are “due for a win.”  Just wanted to put that out there, as it might come into play for some of my picks.

> The Loneliest Number – One truly is the loneliest number and this year’s lonely team is the Denver Broncos.  They are lonely because the 11 other playoff teams fall into the category of “have a chance to win a Super Bowl.”  The Broncos are a Marion Barber fumble away from not being in the playoffs and were lucky to back their way in with a loss at home to Kansas City…and the QB (Kyle Orton, #redemption) that they chased out of town.  Of course there are teams that are more likely to go all the way than others, but any of the 11 teams could win and it wouldn’t be a total shocker.  However, if the Broncos win on Tebow’s 3/29 passing, 26 passing yards, 38 rushing yards, and somehow 2 receptions, it will simply confirm that December 21, 2012 will indeed be the end of the world.

> New Kids On The Block – This year’s playoffs feature a balanced roster of teams with six returners and six teams not featured in the 2011 postseason.  Of the six newbies, the Broncos have already been addressed, while the Bengals and Giants are not unfamiliar to the playoff scene.  That leaves us with the Texans, Niners, and Lions.  Houston will be playing in the first playoff game in franchise history, San Francisco hasn’t played a postseason game since 2002, meanwhile Detroit has not been to the playoffs since 1999 and they haven’t won a playoff game since 1991.  One of these teams has a wildcard game on the road (DET), one has a wildcard game at home (HOU), and one has a first-round-bye (SF)…should be interesting to see if they can succeed despite a lack of recent postseason experience.

> Time To Pee Or Get Off The Pot – The Ravens, Giants, and Patriots have all won a championship in this century, but they also all haven’t done much lately in terms of postseason success.  Year after year all three teams are in the thick of things, and then they either narrowly miss the playoffs, or get eliminated before things get serious.  Meanwhile the Falcons are making their third playoff birth in the last four years, but have yet to notch a win.  Will one of these mainstay competitors finally step up to the plate?

> The Champs Are Here – Not only is it fascinating that 12 of the last 15 Super Bowl titles were won by franchises that are in the playoffs this year, but the last four consecutive SB Champs are in the postseason pool.  The Giants, Steelers, Saints, and Packers have won the last four championships, respectively.  Clearly there is some longevity to their dominance, can one of them claim their second title in a 5-year period?

And now for the picks (home team in Italics):

Week 1.

Texans def. Bengals

Saints def. Lions

Giants def. Falcons

Steelers def. Broncos

Sure, the Texans have lost three in a row, but it was after they clinched the division.  I’m not saying that they lost on purpose, but they didn’t have their backs against the wall.  I think they will bring everything they have in a must-win game and TJ Yates manages a good game.  As for the Saints, here’s the theory of redemption at play – after Seattle upset them and dealt them a first round exit last year, the Saints will have playoff redemption on the mind…no way they lose at home.  The Giants seem to only lose games that they are clearly supposed to win (see: Redskins, Seahawks, Redskins again).  So due to the fact that they aren’t a run-away favorite against Atlanta, I like them to come through.  In addition, the Falcons wedged their way into the playoffs with a soft schedule down the stretch – their Week 7 win against Detroit is their only victory against a team with a winning record this season.  Finally, although Tebow is getting lucky with a few Steelers injuries, their defense will still own him.  And listen people, let’s not freak out if Denver pulls off a miracle, remember how quickly the hype about Seattle’s 1^st round upset died last year after the Bears sent them home.

Week 2.

49ers def. Saints

Steelers def. Patriots

Ravens def. Texans

Packers def. Giants

These four games were the hardest to pick.  In a straight matchup at a neutral site I would take the Saints over SanFran, but there are too many advantages for the Niners.  SanFran will be well rested AND at home, where their only loss was to Dallas in overtime in week 2.  New Orleans has been so inconsistent on the road, with shocking losses at Tampa Bay and St. Louis earlier this season.  That, in addition to the 49ers having more time to game-plan for Brees gave the Niners the very slight edge in my book (can’t wait to see Vegas’ line on that game).  Moving on, I was tempted to take the Pats to prove how much I am not biased against them, but the truth is to just look at what their swiss cheese defense gave up to Tebow.  The Steelers solid offensive system, plus their proven ability to contain Brady gives them the edge.  And yes, I checked, Belichick has gone 0-2 against a non-division foe in the same season before (2006 Colts).  I’ll take the Ravens over the injured Texans, with Baltimore having more time to prep and due for a big playoff win - great season for Houston though, definitely something to build on.  Finally, I wanted to pick the Giants to upset the Packers, the way that they did to the Pats in Super Bowl XLII, but there is just no way they can go to Lambeau and win.

Conference Championship.

Steelers def. Ravens

Packers def. 49ers

Again employing the theory of redemption I cannot see the Ravens beating the Steelers three times in the same season, even if they are hosting.  Plus the Ravens have been too inconsistent this season to beat a team that is so solid on both sides of the ball.  When it comes to the NFC, the marked advantages the Niners had over the Saints will both be gone – they will now be on the road, and at equal resting/prep time with a superior Packers unit.

Super Bowl.

Packers def. Steelers

I hate doing this to the Steel City, but we haven’t had a repeat champion since the Pats in ‘04/’05, and we haven’t had a repeat SB matchup since Dallas and Buffalo in ‘93/’94, with the Cowboys winning both times.  I just think that the Packers match up well against the Steelers, and Aaron Rodgers is excellent indoors.  As of last year’s SB, Rodgers' dome passer rating was 111.5, and that number has only increased this season.  I think it will be another great game, like last year, and only showcases the lasting dominance that both of these franchises have in their respective conferences.

SB XXVIII in 1994 was the last time we witnessed a repeat matchup.

Now, what do I know?  I’m just a guy with a laptop.  I’m hoping that I can outdo myself from last year’s picks where I went 8/11 in playoff games.  But the simplest truth about football is that on “any given Sunday” any team can beat any team.  Either way, right or wrong, and especially if the Mayans know what they’re talking about, the NFL playoffs will be going out with a bang, and they sure are going to be great to watch.

Seat 22

Competition.  It is at the root of almost everything that we do.  To compete means to battle, to work hard, and potentially to struggle.  So why do we like it so much?  Why do we as human beings seek out competition and weave it into the many threads that construct the meaning of our lives?  I think it’s because that battle, that struggle to succeed, is what defines us.  You can only measure the quality of your success by the magnitude of what sacrifices it took to get there.

We are emotional beings, no ifs, ands, or buts about it.  Some people may have thicker skin than others, but that just means their struggle is that much more personal to them and they protect that truth with walls of sternness.  What no individual can hide from is the fact that competition exists all around us – on a practical scale, we compete against each other as individuals, we like to place friendly wagers when we disagree so that we can be rewarded for “being right,” we compete against tough material in the classroom, or the impossible economy in the workplace.  Then on an intangible scale we compete against standards, the status quo, doubt, adversity, and what is usually referred to as the impossible.

We sometimes forget that all these arenas of competition exist, because we want to pretend that we are passive beings whose lives are not defined by competition.  Well nobody is fooling me.  And so while this article is about sports, I wanted to lead in with a reminder that even if you’re not a sports fan, you are still a competitor, which should give you an adequate frame of reference for what I have to say…

It was unreal on Wednesday, sitting in seat 22.  It all ended right where it started.  And this 24-year old author was taken back to the spring of 1994.  It was the tail end of my time in 1^st grade and I was a scrawny little kid with a lisp that could rival nails on a chalkboard.  On a storybook spring morning, 45 minutes north of New York City, my dad was headed out the door for the Pony League coaches meeting.  This was a big day because not only did you get the team roster and equipment, but you also got the uniforms. 

I had been waiting for this day for a while – my older brother Joe had already played two seasons of little league by now and had jerseys from the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs to prove it.  Now it was my turn to get a jersey…finally.

I sat in my parents’ bathroom and watched my dad shave, which had become part of my routine in getting up early during the week to see him off to work.  Then as he brushed his teeth, I asked him to please try to get Mets jerseys, which at the time sounded something like “Daddy, pleaschh try to get the Metschh.”  Joe was a Yankee fan, and in the same way that Joe loving Batman and Chip had made me favor Robin and Dale, I wanted the Mets to combat Joe’s Yankees. 

My dad said he would try, but that a lot of people were going to try for the Mets.  I said that was fine, and just hoped for something to separate me from Joe – so no Yankees, Astros, or Cubs, and I’d be a happy camper.  Then, in the moment where my Dad walked out the door, my mother unknowingly changed my life forever when she said, “Frank, if you can’t get the Mets, get that new teal team – they will be easy to see when I pull up to the parking lot so I know what field you guys are playing at.”  My dad came home that sunny April Saturday with a black trash bag of teal jerseys, and though it wasn’t what I had asked for, I threw on that #6 Marlins jersey for the first time and it still hasn’t come off.

Where it all started...

The Florida Marlins entered the league a year before I entered the world of baseball, but because it was during the player strike, I like to think that the two of us came into baseball together.  Knowing that they were a new team and I was a new player, it stuck.  I’ve been a fan of the Marlins for my entire life, and many people have come to reference me as the only Marlins fan that they know.  As I grew up through the 90’s, the Marlins became synonymous with my young identity.  As a Catholic school attendee, uniforms were a must, but every once in a while we were rewarded with “play-clothes.”  Consistent as the sunrise, every time I got a chance to wear play-clothes, I made sure to sport some Marlins gear, to show people that I was proud of being the only Marlins fan they knew and that I could give two craps about the Bronx Bombers.

I could continue on and tell you the whole timeline of my Marlins fanship – but I’ll stick to the highlights.  I’ll never forget 1997, coming home from school during the NLDS to catch the afternoon Game 1 between the Marlins and San Francisco Giants.  I then remember having to play the Atlanta Braves who were on the early end of their NL East supremacy with a historic pitching rotation.  After dispatching of the Braves in 6 games behind Livan Hernandez’s dominance on the mound, it was on to the Cleveland Indians for the big money.  I remember the only regret I had in winning the World Series that season was that it wasn’t against the Yanks. 

A 5^th grader at the time, I went to school the next day, like a kid in a candy store, only to have the Yankees fans take away my celebration, “you’re lucky you didn’t have to play us, we would have crushed you.”  Though a completely irrational argument, because the Yankees weren’t even good enough to get out of the first round that year, that was my first exposition to the true mantra of Yankees fans; gloat when we win, excuse when we lose (see the argument: we have 27 rings).  It made the sweetness of my first championship (which, by the way, came much earlier than the Yanks’ first franchise title) taste sour.

Fortunately for me, karma seemed to take note that it now owed a debt to me.  In 2003, I witnessed what I believe to be the best pair of pennant battles in my lifetime; the Marlins taking on the Cubs and the Boston Red Sox battling the Yanks.  After a dramatic seven game series with the Cubbies, the Marlins had won the NL Pennant, making them 2-for-2 in such situations (that’s a better win percentage than the Yanks can boast…for those of you keeping score at home).  The next night was Game 7 of the ALCS, and for the first and only time in my life, I rooted for the New York Yankees.  When Aaron Boone hit that homerun I was speechless; six years after I heard my first jab about how the Yanks would have dominated the Marlins in the World Series, it was now time for Yankee fans to do something they often failed to do, back up all that trash talk.  Too bad they weren’t up to the challenge.

In 2003 the Florida Marlins dominated the New York Yankees behind two wins from Brad Penny, an 11^th inning Alex Gonzalez walk-off homerun, and a 5-hit series-clinching shutout behind the arm of World Series MVP Josh Beckett.  The next day I had the opportunity to tell Yankee fans something that I had wanted to say from the moment they ruined my first championship, something that most baseball fans long to tell them today – shut up.  But I didn’t. I didn’t gloat, I didn’t rub it in, I didn’t want to sink to their level.  I had taken junk throughout the whole series without saying anything, especially when we went down 2-1, but on this day, the day after we were crowned champs, my silence was deafening.

I know that people will continue to make fun of the Marlins, their two “fire sales,” their poor attendance, and their predominantly sub-par performance.  I’ll tell you what though, I’m glad I didn’t end up with a Mets or Cubs jersey back in ‘94, otherwise I’d still be waiting on my first big win, instead of having celebrated two unforgettable ones.

So there I sat in Section 102, Row 8, Seat 22, on Wednesday, literally taking hundreds of pictures as if it would help me to absorb the moment.  I was joined by over 34,000 other spectators who came out to say goodbye to the only sports team I’ve ever loved.

It was unreal to be a part of something like that; to have taken the whole ride with a team and then to be there in person to witness the end of an era.  What I did realize is that the Florida Marlins that I knew while growing up had started to fade away a long time ago.  Ever since the team was bought by current owner Jeffrey Loria, the team has been changing.  Loria, who was literally handed a World Series capable team, assumed ownership in 2002, and then took credit for the Marlins Championship season in 2003.  That series-clinching tag by Beckett on Jorge Posada was the end of the real Florida Marlins. 

Since then the Marlins have wheeled and dealed, slowly trading away all of their World Series contributors.  Whether the media would agree with me or not, as a true fan, I will tell you what it felt like since 2002.  It felt like Loria was a very selfish owner.  The most basic example is how he slowly transitioned teal out of the team’s color scheme simply because he didn’t like it – I guess 10 years of history doesn’t count for anything.  In addition, Loria and his stepson, team president David Samson, have been adamant about taking credit for all of the Marlins successes and none of their failures.  They seem to have been more interested with leaving their mark on the team, than with the team leaving their mark on the field.  Right or wrong, bitter or unbiased, that’s a fan’s perspective; and I’m sure that I’m not alone.

The truth is that since 2003, the Marlins have been fading away into a team that was “once upon a time,” and this past Wednesday was just the official book-end on an amazing run.  I hope that the Miami Marlins, set to enter the world of Major League Baseball on 11/11 of this year, can carry at least a little bit of the Florida Marlins legacy.  It’s too soon to tell right now how it will feel – if I will be as diehard about the Miami fish as I was about the Florida ones.  I think it will be ok though, because as I sat there in seat 22 this week and looked at this father and son in front of me (both sporting some Marlins gear), I thought that some day I’ll take my little boy to see our Marlins play.

Getting my pic with a fellow "life-er"

This article is my tribute to the Marlins, and all that they have brought to my life.  The Marlins taught me how to believe in the impossible, how to be an underdog, and how to never give up.  Looking back on the years, I can say that I cheered for them passionately and defended them at every moment.  Maybe it’s something I picked up from my New York stomping grounds.  Clearly I’m not shy about my distaste for the Yankees, but I cannot deny the bond I have with those diehard fans from the Bronx – we both love our teams.

And that’s the connection.  As much as competition can pit us against each other; whether it’s a fellow student in the classroom, a co-worker at the office, a player on the field or another fan in the stands, competition is something that brings us together.  If we listen hard enough, competition is a language that we all speak, just in different dialects.  But it’s important to appreciate that, to know that people can have the same level of investment in different things.  And so while I love to watch the Yankees lose, I will never hesitate to throw their fans a bone, because I know how dedicated they are.

Seat 22.  I can officially say that I am the last person to ever sit in that seat in the history of the Florida Marlins.  And I will be there on 4/4/12 this spring to be the first person to sit in a seat (number TBD) in the history of the Miami Marlins.  Words cannot describe the way that 18 years flashed before my eyes as I sat in that stadium.  I remembered the few good seasons, the many bad ones, all the jokes I’ve had directed at me, and all the wishful predictions I’ve made.  And then just when I thought the experience had been capped off, they play the top 10 moments in Marlins history up on the stadium big screens.  By time they got to number 1, I knew who I would see.  I knew I’d see the man whose picture has been above my bed since I was 10 years old. 

Surely enough, as goosebumps filled my arms, Edgar Renteria was up on the screen in the bottom of the 11^th inning.  It was 10/26/97 all over again and I was sitting on the floor of my parents’ bedroom after midnight.  And then, as if on cue, Edgar took that Charles Nagy pitch and lined it up the middle of the infield to send Craig Counsell home to a mob of ecstatic Marlins.  It was over. We did it.  And then I was back in 2011, sitting in Sun Life Stadium for the last time, eyes filled with water.  I stood on my chair and applauded with the other 34,000 strong, said thanks so much for the ride, grabbed my game program, picked up my camera, and for the last time said goodbye, to seat 22.