Fool's Gold

With it being the last day of the regular season and both the Angels and Phillies eliminated from playoff contention, I felt like this point just needed to be made...

It is notably ironic that when Albert Pujols signed his recent contract with the Los Angeles Angels, that his average annual salary tied him for third on the list of active players, with none other than Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cliff Lee (A-Rod and Ryan Howard rank 1 and 2).

There was a concept that I've repeated back-to-back off-seasons, mainly to my younger brother and a few close friends; in winter of 2010 it was that Cliff Lee needed the Texas Rangers more than the Rangers needed him, and in winter of 2011 it was that Albert Pujols needed the St. Louis Cardinals more than the Cardinals needed him.  The two players' relationships with their former teams held high levels of intangible value in different ways.  It turns out that both of these players believed themselves to be bigger than their now ex-teams, and went chasing after what I deem as "fool's gold."

Why The Celts Have The Edge

A concept that is often discussed in our culture today is the amount of power and influence that the media has, particularly in the realm of politics.  Well I would argue that their degree of power and influence extends to the realm of sports as well. 

There was a piece I wanted to write over a year ago when the VCU Rams defeated my beloved Kansas Jayhawks in the 2011 NCAA March Madness tournament, as part of their dream journey to the Final Four.  I was going to focus on how the media was the team that beat the Jayhawks, not the Rams.  I'm not trying to minimize the enormous accomplishment of VCU, but the fact of the matter is that if that game was played in a closed gym, with no fans, no cameras, and no reporters, the Jayhawks would have squashed their competition.  

Too bad for Kansas, that's not how sports work these days.

Zoom Out

This isn’t one of those pieces about “appreciate your finances, because there are poor people in the world.”  While that’s very true and you should count your blessings, that message is repeated quite often, so I’ve got something else for you to appreciate.

I don’t know if I’m ever going to catch it.  You know, that feeling we all chase as if we can finally be “caught up” in life.  To-do lists - we all have several of them.  Sure there’s the “work” to-do list, but what about the “you” to-do list…yea, that’s the one that we really never catch.

2012 NFL Playoffs: Deja Vu

According to the Mayans this will be the last NFL postseason that we ever have.  If that is the case, we will definitely be ending the history of the league on a high note.  After a long off-season which featured much ambiguity as to whether football would even be played in Fall 2011, the league, owners, and players reached a deal that ended the strike in time to get us a full season.  The only loss was some time to prep through preseason games and workouts, but that’s far better than having an adjusted schedule, like the NBA.  Imagine if the NFL started at the end of October with teams playing on Sundays AND Wednesdays…yea, crazy.

So the storylines of this year were plenty.  After the prequel of the strike, things got under way quickly with the Aaron Rodgers/Drew Brees shootout on opening night.  I remember that one fondly because I thought Rodgers’ three 1^st quarter touchdowns were just the beginning of a big fantasy night, as my opponent and older brother, was featuring Brees in his lineup.  Sure enough, Brees ended the night with more fantasy points, but Rodgers came out with the W…the first of 13 in a row to start the season.

In addition, 2011 featured the Buffalo Bills circling the wagons better than most, with a 4-1 start, including a comeback win over Bill Belichick’s notorious Patriots.  Then, shortly after dipping into their savings account for Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills followed up their hot start with a 2-9 finish.  Other top storylines included Jim Harbaugh’s turnaround of the 49ers, leading them to a division crown and first round bye, despite his 16-6 loss to his big brother and the Ravens on Thanksgiving.

Finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Cam Newton’s dominance, the Colts’ almost “defeated” season, the Dolphins’ 6-3 finish to an 0-7 start, the Texans investing in their own personal hospital since their  players (mainly any QB named Matt) were maxing out bed space in Houston, the Bears losing their top two offensive threats in consecutive weeks, the Chargers underachieving and not firing their coach (wait I thought that was 2010, or 2008, no maybe 2009…meh, too hard to keep track), Rex Ryan talking the talk while being unable to walk the walk (maybe he should walk on a treadmill this off-season), the “dream team” in Philly finishing at a nightmarish 8-8, and of course Tim Tebow charming people into thinking he can play quarterback, followed by reality setting in and him closing the season with QB stats that ranked 34^th in a 32-team league.

And now time for the main reason we are here today, some futures picks for the 2012 NFL playoffs.  Before getting into the actual picks, I will make some standard disclaimers.  I’ll then follow up the picks with a couple of game notes, but there will be no lengthy game-by-game analysis…I’ll leave that to ESPN and their 297 hours of pre-playoff coverage and speculation.

> The Curse Has Been Lifted – After hating the New England Patriots for most of my life and being unable to remain neutral in picking their games, I can now admit that I am a recovered hater.   I still strongly dislike the Patriots, but after they gave Tim Tebow the beating that he deserved, I felt like the Grinch with my heart growing to at least respect the Pats.  So there is no more issue with me not picking the Patriots just because I hate them.

> The TOR – When in grad school, one of my student employees noted that I made many of my sports picks based on the “Inzirillo Theory of Redemption.”  This theory claims that despite some statistical data, certain teams have a marked intangible advantage over an opponent because of their momentum and mindset based on a previous experience.  For example if two teams, in any sport, had fairly comparable talent but one was on a 5-game winning streak, and the other a 5-game losing streak, I would be hesitant to pick against the latter of the two, because they are “due for a win.”  Just wanted to put that out there, as it might come into play for some of my picks.

> The Loneliest Number – One truly is the loneliest number and this year’s lonely team is the Denver Broncos.  They are lonely because the 11 other playoff teams fall into the category of “have a chance to win a Super Bowl.”  The Broncos are a Marion Barber fumble away from not being in the playoffs and were lucky to back their way in with a loss at home to Kansas City…and the QB (Kyle Orton, #redemption) that they chased out of town.  Of course there are teams that are more likely to go all the way than others, but any of the 11 teams could win and it wouldn’t be a total shocker.  However, if the Broncos win on Tebow’s 3/29 passing, 26 passing yards, 38 rushing yards, and somehow 2 receptions, it will simply confirm that December 21, 2012 will indeed be the end of the world.

> New Kids On The Block – This year’s playoffs feature a balanced roster of teams with six returners and six teams not featured in the 2011 postseason.  Of the six newbies, the Broncos have already been addressed, while the Bengals and Giants are not unfamiliar to the playoff scene.  That leaves us with the Texans, Niners, and Lions.  Houston will be playing in the first playoff game in franchise history, San Francisco hasn’t played a postseason game since 2002, meanwhile Detroit has not been to the playoffs since 1999 and they haven’t won a playoff game since 1991.  One of these teams has a wildcard game on the road (DET), one has a wildcard game at home (HOU), and one has a first-round-bye (SF)…should be interesting to see if they can succeed despite a lack of recent postseason experience.

> Time To Pee Or Get Off The Pot – The Ravens, Giants, and Patriots have all won a championship in this century, but they also all haven’t done much lately in terms of postseason success.  Year after year all three teams are in the thick of things, and then they either narrowly miss the playoffs, or get eliminated before things get serious.  Meanwhile the Falcons are making their third playoff birth in the last four years, but have yet to notch a win.  Will one of these mainstay competitors finally step up to the plate?

> The Champs Are Here – Not only is it fascinating that 12 of the last 15 Super Bowl titles were won by franchises that are in the playoffs this year, but the last four consecutive SB Champs are in the postseason pool.  The Giants, Steelers, Saints, and Packers have won the last four championships, respectively.  Clearly there is some longevity to their dominance, can one of them claim their second title in a 5-year period?

And now for the picks (home team in Italics):

Week 1.

Texans def. Bengals

Saints def. Lions

Giants def. Falcons

Steelers def. Broncos

Sure, the Texans have lost three in a row, but it was after they clinched the division.  I’m not saying that they lost on purpose, but they didn’t have their backs against the wall.  I think they will bring everything they have in a must-win game and TJ Yates manages a good game.  As for the Saints, here’s the theory of redemption at play – after Seattle upset them and dealt them a first round exit last year, the Saints will have playoff redemption on the mind…no way they lose at home.  The Giants seem to only lose games that they are clearly supposed to win (see: Redskins, Seahawks, Redskins again).  So due to the fact that they aren’t a run-away favorite against Atlanta, I like them to come through.  In addition, the Falcons wedged their way into the playoffs with a soft schedule down the stretch – their Week 7 win against Detroit is their only victory against a team with a winning record this season.  Finally, although Tebow is getting lucky with a few Steelers injuries, their defense will still own him.  And listen people, let’s not freak out if Denver pulls off a miracle, remember how quickly the hype about Seattle’s 1^st round upset died last year after the Bears sent them home.

Week 2.

49ers def. Saints

Steelers def. Patriots

Ravens def. Texans

Packers def. Giants

These four games were the hardest to pick.  In a straight matchup at a neutral site I would take the Saints over SanFran, but there are too many advantages for the Niners.  SanFran will be well rested AND at home, where their only loss was to Dallas in overtime in week 2.  New Orleans has been so inconsistent on the road, with shocking losses at Tampa Bay and St. Louis earlier this season.  That, in addition to the 49ers having more time to game-plan for Brees gave the Niners the very slight edge in my book (can’t wait to see Vegas’ line on that game).  Moving on, I was tempted to take the Pats to prove how much I am not biased against them, but the truth is to just look at what their swiss cheese defense gave up to Tebow.  The Steelers solid offensive system, plus their proven ability to contain Brady gives them the edge.  And yes, I checked, Belichick has gone 0-2 against a non-division foe in the same season before (2006 Colts).  I’ll take the Ravens over the injured Texans, with Baltimore having more time to prep and due for a big playoff win - great season for Houston though, definitely something to build on.  Finally, I wanted to pick the Giants to upset the Packers, the way that they did to the Pats in Super Bowl XLII, but there is just no way they can go to Lambeau and win.

Conference Championship.

Steelers def. Ravens

Packers def. 49ers

Again employing the theory of redemption I cannot see the Ravens beating the Steelers three times in the same season, even if they are hosting.  Plus the Ravens have been too inconsistent this season to beat a team that is so solid on both sides of the ball.  When it comes to the NFC, the marked advantages the Niners had over the Saints will both be gone – they will now be on the road, and at equal resting/prep time with a superior Packers unit.

Super Bowl.

Packers def. Steelers

I hate doing this to the Steel City, but we haven’t had a repeat champion since the Pats in ‘04/’05, and we haven’t had a repeat SB matchup since Dallas and Buffalo in ‘93/’94, with the Cowboys winning both times.  I just think that the Packers match up well against the Steelers, and Aaron Rodgers is excellent indoors.  As of last year’s SB, Rodgers' dome passer rating was 111.5, and that number has only increased this season.  I think it will be another great game, like last year, and only showcases the lasting dominance that both of these franchises have in their respective conferences.

SB XXVIII in 1994 was the last time we witnessed a repeat matchup.

Now, what do I know?  I’m just a guy with a laptop.  I’m hoping that I can outdo myself from last year’s picks where I went 8/11 in playoff games.  But the simplest truth about football is that on “any given Sunday” any team can beat any team.  Either way, right or wrong, and especially if the Mayans know what they’re talking about, the NFL playoffs will be going out with a bang, and they sure are going to be great to watch.